Observe
Every day we collect economic data from official publishers: the IMF, the World Bank, Eurostat, central banks and national statistics offices. Each value keeps the date we first saw it.
Macro intelligence · in beta · updated daily
Micro signals.
Macro impacts.
A small shift today can become tomorrow's market-moving event. See where the ripples start, and where they collide, across 139 economies and world markets.
Today's signalWorldEl Niño index (Pacific Ocean temperature)Unusual rise
Where it can leadIndia's rice harvestEl Niño could shrink this season's harvestTested on past data
139 countries, watched every day
Updated 19 October 2026
Observed daily (139 countries)
Series moving unusually today: 1, 2, 3 or more (40 countries)
Not yet observed
"Moving unusually" means unusual for that series' own history, up or down, good news or bad. It's an observation, not a forecast. Small islands are too small to show at this scale.
139countries observed
3,168official data series, checked daily
57See our published dated calls →
0scored so far: the first are due in January 2028
Moving today
What the data show today
Updated 19 October 2026- Japanforeign exchange reservesUnusual fall
- South KoreaexportsUnusual rise
- MalaysiaexportsUnusual rise
- Ukrainebank lendingUnusual rise
- Georgiaforeign exchange reservesUnusual rise
- Fijiconsumer pricesUnusual rise
A selection of today's unusual moves, up or down, good news or bad: observations, not forecasts. Sources: IMF, World Bank, Eurostat, national publishers.
Approach
How we work
For people who follow the world economy closely: analysts, researchers, journalists and policy teams.
Understand
We study how a move in one place can show up in prices and markets far away, such as El Niño in food prices or an oil shock in a currency.
Test
We test ideas before we trust them, under rules fixed in advance. Most don't survive. When one fails, we say so and move on.
Record
Each call goes into a ledger with its date and can't be changed afterwards. When a call's time is up, it is scored, and the score is published, good or bad.
Principles
What we won't do
We'd rather earn trust slowly than claim it early.
- No accuracy claims until our calls have been scored, in public.
- No investment advice. We publish research and observations.
- No data we may not share. Every number comes from an official publisher and says where it's from.
- No hindsight. Rules are fixed before results, and calls are never edited after they're made. Every call is published with a fingerprint you can check.
What we track today
A focused start, growing with the evidence
We've begun with a focused set of economic indicators, commodity prices and climate signals across 139 countries. As our research proves out new connections, we'll extend into new areas, adding each one only once it has held up under testing.
Questions
Frequently asked
What is IntelOpus?
Independent macro intelligence on the world economy, in beta. We follow official data for 139 countries and world markets every day to see what's moving and where it can lead, and we test our ideas under rules we fix in advance.
Where does the data come from?
Only from official publishers: the IMF, the World Bank, Eurostat, central banks and national statistics offices. Every figure is credited to its source. Publishers revise their data and some release late; we show the date of what we have.
Do you make forecasts?
We make dated calls and publish every one on our calls page, new ones each month. Each says what it depends on ("if the recent pace holds") and when it will be scored. Until calls have been scored, we make no claim about how accurate they are.
What does "Tested on past data" mean?
That a connection has been checked against history and held up, for example that El Niño years have shrunk India's rice harvest. It's different from a call about the future, which is scored only when its time comes.
Who is IntelOpus for?
People who follow the world economy closely: analysts, researchers, journalists and policy teams, and anyone curious about how events in one place reach prices elsewhere.
What does "moving unusually" mean?
A series is moving in a way that's unusual for its own history. It can be good news or bad, and it's an observation, not a prediction.
Is this investment advice?
No. IntelOpus publishes research and observations. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.
When do you launch?
When our methods are ready and some calls have been scored. Leave your email below and we'll send one message when that happens.
Launch
Be the first to know when we open
We're building country pages and a public scorecard of every call we make. Leave your email and we'll send one message when it's ready. No newsletter, no sharing your address. You can ask us to delete it at any time.